Amateur Game Theory Has Consequences
I really like this post about the misuse of amateur game theory, which Brad DeLong linked to. I've been meaning to post a similar criticism of the various ways game theory is abused, particularly in hawkish foreign policy circles.
My one quibble is that signaling doesn't have to be costly to be credible. This is often the case, but sometimes you are a type that can send the signal costlessly. An example is the use of language tests to root out spies. I can't find it, but somewhere in Postwar Judt gives an example of a dessert that Germans could never learn to pronounce (rodgrod med flode?). You could signal that you weren't a German by pronouncing it correctly.
Also, check out the Klein bottle.
My one quibble is that signaling doesn't have to be costly to be credible. This is often the case, but sometimes you are a type that can send the signal costlessly. An example is the use of language tests to root out spies. I can't find it, but somewhere in Postwar Judt gives an example of a dessert that Germans could never learn to pronounce (rodgrod med flode?). You could signal that you weren't a German by pronouncing it correctly.
Also, check out the Klein bottle.
posted by James | 5:24 PM
4 Comments:
I don't think that post was especially good. He made a pretty clear misapplication of the folk theorem for rhetorical points. I don't think that's cool.
Aside from adding profanity, I'm not sure what he got wrong. If I remember correctly, the folk theorem just says that within certain parameters almost any equilibrium is possible. In theory, then, you can achieve almost anything if you have the will to do it. This excites foreign policy hawks, who insist that backing down from any war is a sign of weakness, etc. etc.
That this isn't actually a bright way to conduct ourselves should be obvious, but the analysis has become a staple of conservative foreign policy.
I thought the "war word" stories were urban legends (I've heard similar stories of words used to smoke out Japanese soldiers), but apparently it's not.
I'm not so sure that the Iraq war is an infinitely repeatable game. Heh.
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