Tentatively Confident

The other day Tarun and I discussed how confident we should be in our own observations and reasoning. Tarun was actually driving at something else, but as usual we got bogged down. I pointed out that I am very confident in my own observations when I know that I was paying attention. I actually think this is beause I'm able to detach myself from information cascades to a great extent. An information cascade happens when people make a judgment based in part on independent observation and in part based on the response of others. A few people might decide something one way, and everyone else follows because those decisions are additional evidence. I can isolate myself not so much because I am supremely confident in my own ability, but because I am cynical about everyone's.

Anyway, I bring this up because I just watched the third season of "The Wire." Continue reading only if you don't mind learning the ending of the season. A character named Stringer Bell is shot in the final episode. However, close observation reveals that he's still breathing as he's lying there "dead." Also, I think he appears in a final scene in the gallery of a courtroom.

Now, I admit I'm not confident about the courtroom thing. He definitely breathed while he was "dead." It doesn't really make sense that the police would wrongly think that he died, though, so I admit it's problematic. Also, I admit that I liked the character a lot, so this might be wishful thinking.

Still, I'm fairly sure that he lived, and I want you to acknowledge it.

[UPDATE: excellent series by the way]