Trump's Immigration Position Seems Very Simple

A quick point about yesterday's immigration votes in the Senate, which I hope to follow with a more substantive post when I get a chance to figure out the details of the legislative maneuvering. It is pretty clear that if Trump had wanted a very Trumpy "victory" he could have had one. Democrats were prepared to fund his wall in exchange for various degrees of protection for DACA recipients and the broader Dreamer population. This would have been good for Trump in several ways. First, the wall is the most obvious tangible promise that Trump made to his supporters. Second, Trump's reputation hinges on his skills as a negotiator, and he could have dunked on the Democrats for the rest of his term. "I said I'd get a wall and I easily tricked the Democrats into giving me one! I am the greatest!" Third, actually deporting Dreamers is bound to be unpopular, and to the extent it turns into a voting issue, it will hurt Republicans. Having an excuse not to do it would seem to be a political winner.

There are complicated explanations for Trump's refusal to make a deal on those terms. I may even end up believing one. But for now I've seen nothing to contradict the most basic explanation, which is that Trump is dancing with the one that brung him. By this I mean that Trump won the nomination with a consistent strategy of never letting anyone get to his right on policies that matter to the base, particularly immigration. I'm not sure Trump would have won the nomination if (A) Rubio hadn't been tainted by his association with "amnesty," or (B) Sessions had endorsed Cruz. Trump knows that the only sure play is to avoid any exposure to attack from the right.

Of course that makes compromise essentially impossible. Trump's demand on immigration is that any reform must please the Republicans with the most extreme views. I think he really does want a compromise to happen along those lines! But who wouldn't? Unless the proposed reform protects his right flank, he is not going to sign onto it, regardless of the political advantage he has to sacrifice to maintain this position. He's not a strategic thinker, he's an instinctive guarder of his right flank, and that's how to understand his behavior.

[Updated to add: when I say Trump isn't a strategic thinker, I don't necessarily mean that as an insult! Most of the Republican primary candidates in 2016 strategized themselves right out of the race. Sometimes a simple heuristic is better than all the game theory in the world. That's particularly true when your base itself isn't strategic and is simply out for blood. That said, of course an approach that works in one environment won't necessarily translate well to another environment, and Trump might be well-served by throwing his weight around. But that doesn't mean he will.]